Penentuan Safety Stock dan Reorder Point Pada Pallet Kosong Berdasarkan Peramalan ARIMA di PT XYZ

Rio Nurdiansyah; Alina Cynthia Dewi; Tatik Juwariyah

doi:10.37817/tekinfo.v26i2.4710

Rio Nurdiansyah Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jakarta
Alina Cynthia Dewi Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jakarta
Tatik Juwariyah Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jakarta

DOI: https://doi.org/10.37817/tekinfo.v26i2.4710

Keywords: Demand Forecasting, ARIMA, Safety Stock, Reorder Point, Returnable Transport Items.

Abstract

PT XYZ faces stockout issues for empty pallets due to uncertainties in demand
planning. These stockouts occur as a result of production schedule shifts caused by
bottlenecks such as raw material delays and machine downtime, which hinder
production and distribution processes. This study aims to determine the safety stock
(SS) and reorder point (ROP) for empty pallets based on demand forecasting. The
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method is employed to forecast
empty pallet requirements, with the forecasting results serving as the basis for
determining SS and ROP to optimize inventory levels. The findings indicate that the
ARIMA (0,1,1) model, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 16.18%,
yields a safety stock (SS) of 59 pallets and a reorder point (ROP) of 2,201 pallets. By
adopting this approach, the company can enhance supply chain efficiency and ensure
smoother production and distribution operations.